Title: Theory / Unimportant / Human / blog / Less wrong / Gens / Abramdemski

Title: The Parable of Predict-O-Matic
Description: If you're choosing a strategy of predicting the future based on how accurate it turns out to be, the strategy who's output influences the future in ways that make its prediction more likely will outperform a strategy that doesn't (all else being equal). Thus, one might think that the strategy you chose will be the strategy that most effectively balances its prediction between a) how accurate that prediction (unconditioned on the prediction being given) and b) how much the prediction itself improves the accuracy of the prediction (conditioning on the prediction). Because of this, the intern predicts that the world will be made more predictable than it would be normally.
Creators: Abramdemski
Other fields (not shown on cards):
Kind: Blog post

Name: Hufflepuff Cynicism
Definition: Accepting that the world is imperfect and use the imperfection you see to help people go in the good direction
Page: https://www.lesswrong.com/s/HcMcHb6Cz7R9RdC5D/p/ufBXmcpxC9kLDeELz
Example: Track social reality and real reality seperately, but don't get upset when this allows you to recognize ways that people don't live up to standards which they would claim to endorse.
Example2: Adapt your sense of the standards to roughly conserve the amount of "violation of basic standards" you see, rather than letting it increase as you see better.
Example3: Speak to others in the way you expect them to understand: work around truths which you suspect they're unable or unwilling to accept. Feel no negative judgement of them in doing so.
Example4: Have a strong enough assumption of good faith around other people's beliefs and actions that you want to chesterton's-fence them before correcting them.