Title: Theory / Unimportant / Compagnie considérée / Metaculus

Name: Absolute score
Definition: The score you get for being correct
Page: https://metaculus.medium.com/a-primer-on-the-metaculus-scoring-rule-eb9a974cd204
Context: Metaculus
Denoted by: A

Name: Relative score
Definition: The score you get for being more correct than the rest of the community
Page: https://metaculus.medium.com/a-primer-on-the-metaculus-scoring-rule-eb9a974cd204
Context: Metaculus
Denoted by: R

Name: Number of prediction
Page: https://metaculus.medium.com/a-primer-on-the-metaculus-scoring-rule-eb9a974cd204
Variables: Q a question
Context: Metaculus
Denoted by: \(N\)

Name: A proper scoring rule
Definition: A scoring rule such that in expectation, i.e. over many predictions on questions with given “true” probabilities, the strategy that accrues the most points is to correctly assign those given probabilities
Page: https://metaculus.medium.com/a-primer-on-the-metaculus-scoring-rule-eb9a974cd204
Context: Metaculus

Question: What constraint should satisfy Metaculus scoring rule
Answer: It should be proper
Page: https://metaculus.medium.com/a-primer-on-the-metaculus-scoring-rule-eb9a974cd204
Context: Metaculus
Answer2: Foresight should be rewarded
Answer3: Incentivize to focus deep on some specific question
Answer4: Do not discourage broad forecasting

Name: Positive sum scoring rule
Definition: for a given question the total points awarded across users is generally positive
Page: https://metaculus.medium.com/a-primer-on-the-metaculus-scoring-rule-eb9a974cd204n
Context: Metaculus

Name: Scoring rule
Definition: measures the accuracy of probabilistic predictions
Page: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scoring_rule#Proper_scoring_rules
Context: Metaculus